The global economic cost of a Taiwan Strait military conflict has been modeled by institutions ranging from the Rhodium Group to Bloomberg Economics to various government think tanks and war gaming centers. The estimates vary widely because the scenarios they model vary widely — a short, limited conflict produces different numbers than a prolonged blockade, which produces different numbers than a full-scale invasion with global power intervention. What the models agree on is that the numbers are very large, larger than any economic disruption since the Second World War, and large enough that they constitute an argument for prevention that is separate from any moral or political case for Taiwan’s defense.