In 2023 and 2024, the PLA Rocket Force underwent a sweeping personnel purge. Senior commanders were removed. The political commissar was replaced. Multiple defense industry executives associated with missile programs disappeared from public view. Western observers initially read the purge as evidence of catastrophic problems: missiles filled with water instead of fuel, silos with non-functioning lids, corruption rotting the strategic deterrent. Two years on, a more measured reading is possible.

The PLA Rocket Force — elevated to service branch status in 2015 from the former Second Artillery Corps — is the component of Chinese military power that most directly shapes Taiwan Strait risk assessments. Its inventory of conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, built over thirty years of investment that accelerated after the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis demonstrated American carrier leverage, is the primary instrument through which China can threaten Taiwan’s military infrastructure, its population centers, and the American and allied forces that would respond to any attack. Understanding what the Rocket Force can do in the first hours of a conflict is prerequisite to understanding every other aspect of Taiwan Strait security.