President Lai Ching-te speaks in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei on Saturday, October 10, for Taiwan’s National Day. It’s his third as president. The first one, in 2024, was followed four days later by Joint Sword-2024B, a named PLA exercise around the whole island.

Taipei is braced for something similar. The question worth asking is what form it takes, because the evidence from 2026 points somewhere other than a repeat of 2024.