Deterrence is not a bilateral relationship. Every negotiation Washington conducts with an adversary under pressure is watched by every other adversary under pressure, and the conclusions drawn in those watching capitals shape decisions that have nothing to do with the original file. The framework emerging from the US-Iran nuclear talks is a nuclear agreement in name. In Beijing’s strategic calculus, it is a data point about American willingness to accept suboptimal outcomes when the cost of holding firm becomes politically visible.