https://taiwanstrait.com/tags/risk-calculus/ Recent content in Risk Calculus on Taiwan Strait Hugo en-us Sat, 09 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://taiwanstrait.com/chinas-debt-at-296-of-gdp-fragility-as-a-driver-of-risk/ Sat, 09 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://taiwanstrait.com/chinas-debt-at-296-of-gdp-fragility-as-a-driver-of-risk/ <p>China&rsquo;s total non-financial sector debt reached 296% of GDP in the third quarter of 2025. The United States, for reference, stood at approximately 257% over the same period—and Washington is not operating a command economy that systematically obscures the true state of its balance sheets. The Chinese figure, produced by the Bank for International Settlements rather than Beijing&rsquo;s own statistical apparatus, almost certainly understates the full liability position when off-budget local government instruments and implicit guarantees are included.</p>